Tuesday, August 7, 2007

Who plays second fiddle?

As I've mentioned on numerous prior occasions, I think Hillary all but has the Democrat nomination locked up. The GOP nomination is on far shakier ground: right now it's Giuliani's to lose, but that's less on his own strength and more due to the fact that the other candidates are all siphoning needed support from each other rather than Giuliani. Therefore, I'm going to start speculating on potential vice presidential candidates.

The ticket the GOP fears most is a Clinton-Obama ticket. Up until recently, I would have considered that a legitimate possibility, but given recent barbs the two camps have traded, that's beginning to appear unlikely. It is rare that a party's top two candidates will join forces, and it's becoming increasingly clear that Clinton doesn't respect Obama's political acumen, at least not yet. So here's a completely unscientific look at other potential VP candidates for Hillary, based purely on my own knowledge and intuition.
Al Gore: An intriguing possibility, but not likely. Clinton-Gore has been done once, and I seriously doubt Al would want to play #2 to his former boss's wife. Politically speaking, VP would be a demotion of sorts. Also, it is questionable that Gore could deliver Tennessee, especially if Thompson wins the GOP nomination.
Bill Richardson: He's a well-respected governor who could deliver New Mexico. His name came up in past Presidential elections, although he opted not to run. He won't carry the electoral votes to deliver the White House, but he's a very solid choice. Having a governor or past governor on the ticket is usually a good idea.
John Edwards: I get the impression Edwards is in this to win the Presidency outright. He does have a certain amount of popularity, but the east coast bias could hurt. Edwards also clearly identifies with the liberal wing of the Democrat party, and Clinton is trying to appeal to the centrists.
John Kerry: This one won't happen for a large number of reasons. I think Kerry is bitter from 2004, and he won't want to play #2 man. A New York-Massachusetts ticket would be unwise from a regional point of view, and frankly, Kerry has little appeal beyond not being Bush.
Evan Bayh: He's an intriguing choice: he's so moderate, he's practically a Republican. In fact, he could be Giuliani's running mate. Furthermore, he can possibly deliver Indiana, and possibly have an impact on Ohio, Kentucky or Michigan. Bayh is regarded as an up-and-comer in the Democrat Party, much like Obama, but unlike Obama, he stayed out of the ring because he didn't think the time was right. I have to think Bayh is on Clinton's short list - he hasn't exactly hidden the fact that he's interested.
Nancy Pelosi: I don't think she's seriously under consideration, nor do I think she should be. Right now, she's the most powerful person in Congress, and she likes it that way.
A Yet-to-be-named former member of Bill Clinton's administration: One look at the current administration will tell you the viability of this strategy. There will almost certainly be that comfort zone there with such a selection, but it could also backfire: Cheney isn't exactly popular nowadays. Hillary will also want to keep just enough of Bill's legacy to strengthen her position, but she'll definitely want to establish her own political identity as well. A break from her husband's administration will go a long way toward accomplishing this.

Who do I think is ultimately going to get the nod? I have to go with either Richardson or Bayh right now. The biggest thing working against Bayh is that the Democrats can ill afford to lose a Senator. Indiana will hold gubernatorial elections in 2008 as well, so there is absolutely no guarantee Bayh would be replaced with another Democrat. That said, I think Bayh also greater political upside. If it looks like Indiana governor Mitch Daniels will lose in '08, Bayh will likely be the VP candidate. Otherwise, Richardson should get the offer.

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