The dust is starting to settle

At this point, I'm becoming increasingly comfortable in stating the race for the White House consists of four serious contenders, two on each side. Clinton is the hands-down favorite among Democrats, with Obama providing the only real challenge at this point. For the Republicans, it's Giuliani and Thompson.

The past 2 weeks have been disastrous for McCain. His campaign leadership is crumbling and his financial state is rapidly approaching dire. Barring a miracle, I'm guessing he'll be forced to withdraw much sooner than he anticipated.

John McCain is another interesting study in things not going the way they're supposed to. His 2000 campaign generated some buzz and a fair amount of name recognition. He established himself as the "moderate" Republican, capable of gathering crossover votes and willing to cooperate with Democrats. While he couldn't win the GOP nomination then, he was clearly the one holding the cards to be Bush's successor. And after the 2004 election, many moderate conservatives who were displeased with Bush saw him as a voice of reason among a runaway party.

At every turn since then, however, McCain has managed to find the path of least popular support. He has been a staunch supporter of the President and administration policies on the least popular issues, and countered the President on his strongest issues. His conservative credentials were already suspect to the point of being nearly irrecoverable, and he didn't help matters by blowing off a major gathering of conservative religious leaders - a gathering attended by Romney and (I believe) Giuliani. 4 years ago, McCain had the momentum, the popularity and the means to win the White House. Today, he's billing himself as George Bush III in a climate that wants precisely not that.