At this point, it is highly unlikely that anyone but McCain will win the GOP nomination. He has a commanding lead and lots of momentum. In spite of Huckabee's stumping, the language being used now by both McCain and GOP leadership indicate that they are treating him as the presumptive candidate, and are now focusing on reuniting the party behind McCain.
Pundits like Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter need to tread carefully here. Romney said he was suspending his campaign because minor party disagreements pale in comparison to the fundamental ideological disagreements the GOP faces vis a vis the Democrats, and he recognizes the importance of presenting a unified front. As things stand right now, in a theoretical head-to-head campaign, McCain would defeat Clinton and is within just a couple of percentage points of Obama. The Democrat battle promises to be long and hard-fought, and may not be revealed for another two or three months - time McCain has to find a running mate, solidify his platform and raise money.
Limbaugh and Coulter are screaming bloody murder about McCain. He's not conservative enough, they say. He's too soft on immigration and didn't back Bush's tax cuts enough, they say. He didn't back the Constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. These are cardinal sins to them, enough that they're threatening to try to form a third party or encourage voters to vote for Clinton or Obama. This is sheer lunacy on their parts. Think about it for a moment: they're threating to vote for someone with whom they disagree about everything because they're throwing a hissy fit about someone with whom they disagree about some stuff. That's real brilliant, there.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Some quick GOP math
As mentioned previously, it takes 1191 delegates to win the GOP nomination. So far, by my count, 1207 delegates have been selected, meaning there are 1173 still to go. This means that in order to win, Mike Huckabee would have to win all but 176 of the remaining delegates. Romney needs all but 261 of the remaining delegates to win.
Saturday's and Tuesday's elections probably won't eliminate anyone mathematically, but it's likely at least one of those two will find himself needing to win just about every remaining delegate in every remaining state - not a likely prospect.
Edit: It looks like Romney is pulling out.
Saturday's and Tuesday's elections probably won't eliminate anyone mathematically, but it's likely at least one of those two will find himself needing to win just about every remaining delegate in every remaining state - not a likely prospect.
Edit: It looks like Romney is pulling out.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
How quickly the tables turn!
The Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses are over, and results are still coming in. That said, every race except New Mexico's Democrat race can safely be called: in New Mexico, Clinton and Obama are neck and neck, with less than 1,000 votes separating the two. For the Democrats, Obama won more states, while Clinton won the big states. Mathematically, we'll call it a stalemate, which plays into Obama's hand. But how large are Florida and Michigan looming now? This race is extremely close and won't clear up any time soon.
For the GOP, as expected, McCain surged to clear front-runner status. My prediction was that McCain would come into today with around 600 electoral votes, and according to cnn.com, he's got 615, but that's not the whole story: only 59 of California's 171 GOP delegates have been assigned, so he could end up with a whole lot more. Huckabee had a stronger-than-expected showing, winning several states in the Bible Belt, while Romney started the night weak before rebounding with wins in several states out west. Nonetheless, with 1191 delegates needed to win, McCain is very clearly in the driver's seat.
For the GOP, as expected, McCain surged to clear front-runner status. My prediction was that McCain would come into today with around 600 electoral votes, and according to cnn.com, he's got 615, but that's not the whole story: only 59 of California's 171 GOP delegates have been assigned, so he could end up with a whole lot more. Huckabee had a stronger-than-expected showing, winning several states in the Bible Belt, while Romney started the night weak before rebounding with wins in several states out west. Nonetheless, with 1191 delegates needed to win, McCain is very clearly in the driver's seat.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Super Monday
Today's the day between the Super Bowl and Super Tuesday. Whee! Time for some predictions...
The race between Clinton and Obama is narrowing. Until now, Obama looked particularly strong in the early states, but now it looks like states in which Clinton had held a comfortable lead she's fighting to hold on to a majority. The biggest prize is California, which Clinton had been dominating and is now too close to call. That said, I think Clinton will land a few more delegates than Obama, but the race will continue to be very close.
On the GOP end of things, all indicators are that McCain will win the majority of the states, many in fairly dominant fashion. That should put Romney on life support and force Huckabee out. I'm calling it now: Huckabee exits the race before the week is out.
The race between Clinton and Obama is narrowing. Until now, Obama looked particularly strong in the early states, but now it looks like states in which Clinton had held a comfortable lead she's fighting to hold on to a majority. The biggest prize is California, which Clinton had been dominating and is now too close to call. That said, I think Clinton will land a few more delegates than Obama, but the race will continue to be very close.
On the GOP end of things, all indicators are that McCain will win the majority of the states, many in fairly dominant fashion. That should put Romney on life support and force Huckabee out. I'm calling it now: Huckabee exits the race before the week is out.
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