And another one gone...

Bill Richardson has called it quits, and with that move, he officially becomes a leading VP candidate. This move isn't much of a surprise, considering he's hardly made an impact in the 2 contests in which he's participated. Meanwhile, Fred Thompson has stated that he's "making his stand" in South Carolina. If he doesn't fare well there, he will almost certainly drop out of the race. Giuliani also desperately needs good things to happen. My guess is that he'll decide on whether to stay in the race following the Super Tuesday primaries on Feb. 5.

I was also mistaken about Romney's fortunes: Wyoming held its Republican caucuses on Jan 5th, which Romney won. So right now we have 3 contests with 3 winners. What makes this situation interesting is that the GOP is punishing New Hampshire, Wyoming, Florida, Michigan and South Carolina for violating party rules regarding primary scheduling, so those states won't be as well represented: this may end up throwing off expected delegate counts. Given how much of a toss-up this race currently is, the effects may be wide-reaching.

When I was watching MSNBC's coverage of the New Hampshire primaries, I picked up on an interesting comment by Pat Buchanan: he said that Giuliani and McCain were essentially on the same page campaign-wise with regard to Bush's policies on terrorism and Iraq. He went on to say that when push comes to shove, the only real difference between Giuliani and McCain is that Giuliani is a one-issue candidate, whereas McCain is more well-rounded. Assuming voters agree with him, this could be very bad for Giuliani and very good for McCain. The numbers seem to support this, since McCain's backing is growing while Giuliani's is shrinking.

Ron Paul provides an interesting X-factor here. Normally, in primaries and caucuses, the bulk of the electorate are those active in their given parties (although states with open primaries do tend to get more independents.) Thus, when one candidate climbs, there is almost always a corresponding drop in another candidate or candidates: if Huckabee's support climbs 10%, 7 to 8% of that will come from other candidates (the remainder should be former undecideds.) What makes Paul's situation is that the bulk of his support are not party activists, but rather activists who otherwise would not be participating. The normal model will show 100 voters at a site, with those voters shifting their allegiances around, with maybe 1 or 2 of those 100 supporting Paul. The Paul model brings an additional 10 voters to the site, giving him 11 or 12 votes out of 110. Those 10 votes he brings otherwise would not have voted. At least, that's my read on it. It's the only explanation I can see why his primary results have been about twice what pollsters anticipated.

Comeback Kids

The New Hampshire primaries were yesterday. I find it amusing that the media outlets are trumpeting Clinton's "upset" over Obama and McCain's upset over Romney. Granted, Clinton's third-place showing in Iowa raised some questions about her long-term viability, and the run-up polls showed Obama surging to a near double-digit lead. The thing is, up until last weekend, Clinton had been the leader in New Hampshire. Let's break this down, shall we?

Winners:
Hillary Clinton. She was not expected to win in Iowa, but third place was a stinging setback for her. While I had anticipated her winning in New Hampshire, the major media outlets did not, so this actually makes her campaign look more resilient than it actually is. This could pay off in Nevada and South Carolina.

Barack Obama. Even though very late polls had predicted a win for him, losing by 2 points to the 20-ton gorilla is no mean feat. A win in Iowa and a razor-thin defeat in New Hampshire demonstrate his viability as a candidate.

John McCain. He desperately needed this one to keep his campaign hopes alive, although I think the media is making too much of his chances as a candidate. I will be shocked if he wins the presidential nomination, but he's still alive - for now.

Mike Huckabee. Finishing third in a state in which he had spent very little time and money campaigning is very, very good, and indicative of the growing strength of his national campaign.

Losers:
Rudi Giuliani. The presumptive GOP front-runner has now finished 6th in Iowa and 4th in New Hampshire. He's not just losing, he's losing badly. National polling shows his support is dropping hard, and depending on which poll you follow, he's now somewhere between 3rd and 4th overall.

Fred Thompson. For all intents and purposes, his campaign is over. The segment he was trying to attract have all gone to Huckabee, McCain or Romney. Don't be surprised to see Thompson withdraw if he fares poorly in South Carolina.

Mitt Romney. His campaign is still strong, but he desperately needed a win in his back yard to keep his presidential aspirations alive. He's going to find campaigning in the South very difficult, and failing to win a key New England race really sets him back. He might have won, if not for Huckabee.

John Edwards. He needed another strong showing to prove he belonged in the conversation with Clinton and Obama, and he didn't get it. He's still very much alive, but New Hampshire proved that the Democrat race is Clinton v. Obama.