Friday, August 10, 2007
Oops...
I didn't realize Jennifer Granholm was a Canadian. So there goes that. The most "natural" match would be Fred Thompson/Elizabeth Dole, but it's geographically not a good idea. And she doesn't pair well with Giuliani.
Wednesday, August 8, 2007
Second Fiddle Part II
Yesterday I took a look at some possible Democrat VP candidates. It was not an exhaustive list by any stretch of the imagination, but it did assume that Clinton gets the Democrat nod. The GOP situation is much, much... well, to say it's murky would rather understate things.
What we do know about the GOP situation is this: Giuliani is currently in control, but not nearly in the same way Clinton is. We also know that he is somewhere between "holding your nose" and "completely and utterly unpalatable" for the religious/moral wing of the Republican party. His popularity derives from the public face he put forward following 9/11 and his "cleaning up" of New York City. His whole deal is national security and tough on crime, and for those who are primarily interested in that, he's extremely popular.
Giuliani's problem is that every Republican candidate knows that you need the moral/religious wing not only behind you, but excited about you if you're going to win the Presidency. And the morality folks are split. None of the other GOP candidates really has that "wow" factor among the so-called "Moral Majority", so VP selection will be that much more crucial.
Unlike the Democrat situation, I wouldn't be surprised to see a number of current candidates also be willing to consider the VP slot. The main ones I think would not would be Giuliani, Thompson and McCain. One other thing: I sincerely doubt that people too closely associated with the current administration will get a second look. With very few exceptions, being associated with the Bush administration would be a death knell to a current candidate. So let's take a look at who we might be dealing with, shall we?
At the top of the list would be Mitt Romney. I sincerely doubt Giuliani would take him (again, that New York-Massachusetts thing), but Thompson-Romney or McCain-Romney would both be viable. Romney's biggest weaknesses are that he's not Protestant and that he's a recent convert to the pro-life movement, raising questions as to whether his conversion was politically motivated or is "genuine." Nevertheless, he's handled himself well and would likely be more of an asset than a liability for a GOP candidate not named "Rudolph".
Elizabeth Dole would have to be the #2 target. Her conservative credentials are well-established, she invokes that vague Reagan Conservatism feeling, she's from the GOP "core" and she's got the administrative and "real world" experience to make her an attractive running mate. In many respects, she's the anti-Hillary.
It is very likely Colin Powell's name will come up, but I have a hard time believing he would give it any serious consideration. For starters, his wife doesn't want him holding elected office. And I imagine his experience as Secretary of State really soured him on the GOP. I'm guessing he'll be approached quietly, but won't want to get involved.
Another interesting possibility would be Michigan governor Jennifer Granholm. She's not the most popular person in the state right now, but she does have a fair amount of political clout there. Putting her on the ticket could make Michigan a red state, which would put a real hurt on Hillary's chances. I do think that women being viewed as potential running mates will get extra attention this time out.
The ideal VP candidate for Giuliani is (unfortunately for him) unable to run due to Constitutional issues. I'm speaking, of course of Arnold Schwarzenegger. It's a pipe dream, but the combination kinda makes sense.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Ron Paul mentioned in association with a couple other candidacies, mostly because he's generated far more buzz than his exceedingly-long-shot campaign has any right to expect. He's become the darling of the internet's libertarians (i.e. frequenters of digg and slashdot.) He's not a likely candidate, but generating too much buzz to ignore. Another outside possibility is Newt Gingrich. He's been trying to orchestrate a 1994-ish return to "conservative family values." The question is whether the public remembers why he left office to begin with. Something in the back of my mind tells me we should also be paying attention to MN governor Tim Pawlenty. Apparently he's a rising star within the GOP.
As for my utterly whacked-out "hey, it could happen!" ultra-long-shot prediction, try this on for size: the Indianapolis Colts go on to have another great year and go on to win the Super Bowl. Head coach Tony Dungy decides to go out on top (he's been mulling retirement and wants to do some real good in the world.) The GOP decides they want to counter Hillary with a high-profile African-American who is well-known, widely respected and will appeal to practicing Christians. Who cares if he's never held public office? Hey, it could happen! (Disclaimer: I have no idea what Dungy's political leanings are, but the idea is just so crazy it might work.)
What we do know about the GOP situation is this: Giuliani is currently in control, but not nearly in the same way Clinton is. We also know that he is somewhere between "holding your nose" and "completely and utterly unpalatable" for the religious/moral wing of the Republican party. His popularity derives from the public face he put forward following 9/11 and his "cleaning up" of New York City. His whole deal is national security and tough on crime, and for those who are primarily interested in that, he's extremely popular.
Giuliani's problem is that every Republican candidate knows that you need the moral/religious wing not only behind you, but excited about you if you're going to win the Presidency. And the morality folks are split. None of the other GOP candidates really has that "wow" factor among the so-called "Moral Majority", so VP selection will be that much more crucial.
Unlike the Democrat situation, I wouldn't be surprised to see a number of current candidates also be willing to consider the VP slot. The main ones I think would not would be Giuliani, Thompson and McCain. One other thing: I sincerely doubt that people too closely associated with the current administration will get a second look. With very few exceptions, being associated with the Bush administration would be a death knell to a current candidate. So let's take a look at who we might be dealing with, shall we?
At the top of the list would be Mitt Romney. I sincerely doubt Giuliani would take him (again, that New York-Massachusetts thing), but Thompson-Romney or McCain-Romney would both be viable. Romney's biggest weaknesses are that he's not Protestant and that he's a recent convert to the pro-life movement, raising questions as to whether his conversion was politically motivated or is "genuine." Nevertheless, he's handled himself well and would likely be more of an asset than a liability for a GOP candidate not named "Rudolph".
Elizabeth Dole would have to be the #2 target. Her conservative credentials are well-established, she invokes that vague Reagan Conservatism feeling, she's from the GOP "core" and she's got the administrative and "real world" experience to make her an attractive running mate. In many respects, she's the anti-Hillary.
It is very likely Colin Powell's name will come up, but I have a hard time believing he would give it any serious consideration. For starters, his wife doesn't want him holding elected office. And I imagine his experience as Secretary of State really soured him on the GOP. I'm guessing he'll be approached quietly, but won't want to get involved.
Another interesting possibility would be Michigan governor Jennifer Granholm. She's not the most popular person in the state right now, but she does have a fair amount of political clout there. Putting her on the ticket could make Michigan a red state, which would put a real hurt on Hillary's chances. I do think that women being viewed as potential running mates will get extra attention this time out.
The ideal VP candidate for Giuliani is (unfortunately for him) unable to run due to Constitutional issues. I'm speaking, of course of Arnold Schwarzenegger. It's a pipe dream, but the combination kinda makes sense.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Ron Paul mentioned in association with a couple other candidacies, mostly because he's generated far more buzz than his exceedingly-long-shot campaign has any right to expect. He's become the darling of the internet's libertarians (i.e. frequenters of digg and slashdot.) He's not a likely candidate, but generating too much buzz to ignore. Another outside possibility is Newt Gingrich. He's been trying to orchestrate a 1994-ish return to "conservative family values." The question is whether the public remembers why he left office to begin with. Something in the back of my mind tells me we should also be paying attention to MN governor Tim Pawlenty. Apparently he's a rising star within the GOP.
As for my utterly whacked-out "hey, it could happen!" ultra-long-shot prediction, try this on for size: the Indianapolis Colts go on to have another great year and go on to win the Super Bowl. Head coach Tony Dungy decides to go out on top (he's been mulling retirement and wants to do some real good in the world.) The GOP decides they want to counter Hillary with a high-profile African-American who is well-known, widely respected and will appeal to practicing Christians. Who cares if he's never held public office? Hey, it could happen! (Disclaimer: I have no idea what Dungy's political leanings are, but the idea is just so crazy it might work.)
Tuesday, August 7, 2007
Who plays second fiddle?
As I've mentioned on numerous prior occasions, I think Hillary all but has the Democrat nomination locked up. The GOP nomination is on far shakier ground: right now it's Giuliani's to lose, but that's less on his own strength and more due to the fact that the other candidates are all siphoning needed support from each other rather than Giuliani. Therefore, I'm going to start speculating on potential vice presidential candidates.
The ticket the GOP fears most is a Clinton-Obama ticket. Up until recently, I would have considered that a legitimate possibility, but given recent barbs the two camps have traded, that's beginning to appear unlikely. It is rare that a party's top two candidates will join forces, and it's becoming increasingly clear that Clinton doesn't respect Obama's political acumen, at least not yet. So here's a completely unscientific look at other potential VP candidates for Hillary, based purely on my own knowledge and intuition.
Al Gore: An intriguing possibility, but not likely. Clinton-Gore has been done once, and I seriously doubt Al would want to play #2 to his former boss's wife. Politically speaking, VP would be a demotion of sorts. Also, it is questionable that Gore could deliver Tennessee, especially if Thompson wins the GOP nomination.
Bill Richardson: He's a well-respected governor who could deliver New Mexico. His name came up in past Presidential elections, although he opted not to run. He won't carry the electoral votes to deliver the White House, but he's a very solid choice. Having a governor or past governor on the ticket is usually a good idea.
John Edwards: I get the impression Edwards is in this to win the Presidency outright. He does have a certain amount of popularity, but the east coast bias could hurt. Edwards also clearly identifies with the liberal wing of the Democrat party, and Clinton is trying to appeal to the centrists.
John Kerry: This one won't happen for a large number of reasons. I think Kerry is bitter from 2004, and he won't want to play #2 man. A New York-Massachusetts ticket would be unwise from a regional point of view, and frankly, Kerry has little appeal beyond not being Bush.
Evan Bayh: He's an intriguing choice: he's so moderate, he's practically a Republican. In fact, he could be Giuliani's running mate. Furthermore, he can possibly deliver Indiana, and possibly have an impact on Ohio, Kentucky or Michigan. Bayh is regarded as an up-and-comer in the Democrat Party, much like Obama, but unlike Obama, he stayed out of the ring because he didn't think the time was right. I have to think Bayh is on Clinton's short list - he hasn't exactly hidden the fact that he's interested.
Nancy Pelosi: I don't think she's seriously under consideration, nor do I think she should be. Right now, she's the most powerful person in Congress, and she likes it that way.
A Yet-to-be-named former member of Bill Clinton's administration: One look at the current administration will tell you the viability of this strategy. There will almost certainly be that comfort zone there with such a selection, but it could also backfire: Cheney isn't exactly popular nowadays. Hillary will also want to keep just enough of Bill's legacy to strengthen her position, but she'll definitely want to establish her own political identity as well. A break from her husband's administration will go a long way toward accomplishing this.
Who do I think is ultimately going to get the nod? I have to go with either Richardson or Bayh right now. The biggest thing working against Bayh is that the Democrats can ill afford to lose a Senator. Indiana will hold gubernatorial elections in 2008 as well, so there is absolutely no guarantee Bayh would be replaced with another Democrat. That said, I think Bayh also greater political upside. If it looks like Indiana governor Mitch Daniels will lose in '08, Bayh will likely be the VP candidate. Otherwise, Richardson should get the offer.
The ticket the GOP fears most is a Clinton-Obama ticket. Up until recently, I would have considered that a legitimate possibility, but given recent barbs the two camps have traded, that's beginning to appear unlikely. It is rare that a party's top two candidates will join forces, and it's becoming increasingly clear that Clinton doesn't respect Obama's political acumen, at least not yet. So here's a completely unscientific look at other potential VP candidates for Hillary, based purely on my own knowledge and intuition.
Al Gore: An intriguing possibility, but not likely. Clinton-Gore has been done once, and I seriously doubt Al would want to play #2 to his former boss's wife. Politically speaking, VP would be a demotion of sorts. Also, it is questionable that Gore could deliver Tennessee, especially if Thompson wins the GOP nomination.
Bill Richardson: He's a well-respected governor who could deliver New Mexico. His name came up in past Presidential elections, although he opted not to run. He won't carry the electoral votes to deliver the White House, but he's a very solid choice. Having a governor or past governor on the ticket is usually a good idea.
John Edwards: I get the impression Edwards is in this to win the Presidency outright. He does have a certain amount of popularity, but the east coast bias could hurt. Edwards also clearly identifies with the liberal wing of the Democrat party, and Clinton is trying to appeal to the centrists.
John Kerry: This one won't happen for a large number of reasons. I think Kerry is bitter from 2004, and he won't want to play #2 man. A New York-Massachusetts ticket would be unwise from a regional point of view, and frankly, Kerry has little appeal beyond not being Bush.
Evan Bayh: He's an intriguing choice: he's so moderate, he's practically a Republican. In fact, he could be Giuliani's running mate. Furthermore, he can possibly deliver Indiana, and possibly have an impact on Ohio, Kentucky or Michigan. Bayh is regarded as an up-and-comer in the Democrat Party, much like Obama, but unlike Obama, he stayed out of the ring because he didn't think the time was right. I have to think Bayh is on Clinton's short list - he hasn't exactly hidden the fact that he's interested.
Nancy Pelosi: I don't think she's seriously under consideration, nor do I think she should be. Right now, she's the most powerful person in Congress, and she likes it that way.
A Yet-to-be-named former member of Bill Clinton's administration: One look at the current administration will tell you the viability of this strategy. There will almost certainly be that comfort zone there with such a selection, but it could also backfire: Cheney isn't exactly popular nowadays. Hillary will also want to keep just enough of Bill's legacy to strengthen her position, but she'll definitely want to establish her own political identity as well. A break from her husband's administration will go a long way toward accomplishing this.
Who do I think is ultimately going to get the nod? I have to go with either Richardson or Bayh right now. The biggest thing working against Bayh is that the Democrats can ill afford to lose a Senator. Indiana will hold gubernatorial elections in 2008 as well, so there is absolutely no guarantee Bayh would be replaced with another Democrat. That said, I think Bayh also greater political upside. If it looks like Indiana governor Mitch Daniels will lose in '08, Bayh will likely be the VP candidate. Otherwise, Richardson should get the offer.
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