Role reversal

Well, that was fun.

Three months ago, it was common knowledge that by this point, Hillary's nomination would be little more than a formality, while the GOP race would be highly contentious and very muddled. The one thing we could be reasonably certain of was that McCain would be out, and Giuliani would be a front-runner. Then reality set in, and I can't think of a single analysis or prediction I've seen that would have indicated things would play out the way they have. (I take campaign predictions with a grain of salt, because they expect to win.)

With Romney's endorsement of McCain, the GOP picture is essentially a done deal. At this point, it's all about convincing Huckabee to punt (because the longer he campaigns, even though he can no longer get the required number of delegates, the more dissent he stirs) and uniting the GOP core behind McCain. I'm hearing rumors that it is now McCain, not Bush, who is setting the GOP legislative agenda, and that fights are being chosen based on what will benefit McCain's candidacy.

Thus, we must now turn our attention to the Democrats. If you listen to the media, Obama's got this one in the bag. Hillary can't win, she's on the ropes, etc. If you look at the delegate counts, the story is very different. This one's a race. It just so happens that Obama has the lead and the momentum at the moment, but, unlike Huckabee, Clinton is still very much alive. She just needs to convince a lot of people that the perception is not equal to the reality of the situation.

Make no mistake: Obama is the media darling, and is attracting enormous attention with his populist message of hope. The thing is, this populist message of hope is very short on specifics and very short on concrete policy - and the concrete policy and voting record to be found indicates someone who is much, much further to the left than many voters realize. I'm hearing quiet rumblings of concern that his wave of momentum and enthusiasm will come crashing down well before November, but well after it's too late for the Democrats to do anything about it.

With Bush's lack of popularity, common wisdom would have indicated that the Democrat nominee (Clinton, presumptively) was a shoe-in for the White House. As this has played out, the Democrats have done a masterful job of shooting themselves in the foot, giving the GOP a very good chance at holding on to the Presidency: Obama may lead in many polls, but remember that at the end of the day, it's about electoral votes, and I don't see Obama taking states away from the GOP - and the DNC's primary antics in Florida and Michigan may have ensured that they vote Republican.

W(h)ither Hillary?

The Clinton camp is reeling: Obama now leads in terms of money, spending and pledged delegates. He's getting the bigger-name endorsements and appears to be the media's favorite. Hillary is now struggling to keep pace, and the erstwhile shoe-in is fighting for her campaign's viability. To be fair, the delegate numbers are very, very close, and Obama has not won the nomination by a long shot. As of right now, though, Hillary's short-term prospects are pretty bleak. Tomorrow, Virginia, Maryland and Washington, DC will hold their primaries, and Obama has a very comfortable lead in those areas. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Obama opens up a 150-delegate lead by Wednesday. Clinton is going to be in damage control mode until March 4th, when Texas and Ohio vote: she needs to win those states convincingly to keep her hopes alive.

I wouldn't write her off quite yet, however. While the GOP race isn't yet settled, the language coming out of GOP leadership is consistent with that of a party viewing things as a done deal: party leaders are trying to get the conservative wing to play ball with McCain, and are talking in terms of presenting a unified front in November. This is important because in states that have open primaries, there is the very real possibility that many of the GOP faithful will cross party lines and vote for Hillary, particularly in states like Texas. The simple fact of the matter is that the Republicans know that if it comes to McCain vs. Clinton, their odds are very, very good. They're not so confident if Obama wins the nod. If the GOP race is decided, they may want to set Clinton up for failure.