It's on now!

According to realclearpolitics, Mick Huckabee has almost caught up with Rudy Giuliani. The 11/30-12/09 spread gives Giuliani a mere 4.2-point lead, and both CNN and CBS/New York Times have Giuliani's lead at 2 points, well within the statistical margin of error. McCain and Romney are both struggling to keep what they have, and Thompson's support is plummeting.

On top of that, Huckabee is absolutely running away with Iowa right now. Michigan's most recent poll, conducted 12/04/07 by Rasmussen, gives Huckabee a 1-point lead over Romney and 2 points over Giuliani. And in South Carolina, Huckabee is really pulling away from the pack, jumping from a distant 5th place to almost an 8-point lead, all in a matter of 2 weeks. South Carolina is particularly important because it is a key indicator as to how the moral conservative bloc will vote.

To be sure, Huckabee is a flawed candidate, and the skeletons are really coming out of the closet now: his paroled-rapist-turned-killer is now an issue, and his comments about isolating those with AIDS are utterly horrifying to many folks. The rapist problem is actually the bigger liability because it shows he's "soft on crime", although it's also the sort of issue that he can turn to his advantage: "I tried showing mercy to a hardened criminal, now another innocent person's blood is on my hands, and that is something I have to live with every day. It. Will. Never. Happen. Again."

Ironically, the AIDS comment could actually solidify his conservative base: he dared verbalize what a not-insubstantial portion of the moral conservative bloc wishes they could. He sent a message of intolerance and exclusion, but many of the people most outraged by that sentiment wouldn't have voted for him anyway, while many of those who agree silently were still undecided. It won't help him with independents and moderates, but this race isn't about widespread appeal, it's about getting the support of the GOP "core." Widespread appeal comes once he's locked up the nomination.

At this point, I think Huckabee's biggest hurdle is convincing the GOP "core" that he can beat Hillary.