Thursday, January 31, 2008
I need to check my math more
I recently said I expected McCain to pick up something on the order of 400 delegates on Tuesday. Then I did the delegate math: there are 1081 at stake, and I expect McCain not only to win, but to win handily. So I'm revising my projections slightly: McCain will pick up close to 600, with Huckabee and Romney splitting the rest. Huckabee will do well enough that he may not bow out immediately - but only if the added delegates bring added money.
Thinning the herd
As predicted, both Giuliani and Edwards are out of the race. Edwards is out for two major reasons: first, he mistook a strong showing as John Kerry's underling as support: in truth, Kerry/Edwards was the definition of "bland left-wing ticket", and their "support" was more a function of opposition to the Bush administration than any interest in those candidates as leaders. The candidacy gave him name recognition, but it didn't do much to help his standing as an effective or vibrant leader. The other issue is that he tried to force himself into what's really become an important discussion in the Democrat Party, between the stalwart party establishment (backing Clinton) and the "next generation" of Democrats looking for a fresh face with a fresh perspective (Obama.) It was apparent to me four years ago that this discussion was on the horizon and that Obama represented the future of the Democrats. And in this dynamic, Edwards gets left out in the cold.
The Giuliani story is also interesting. He was "America's Mayor." He was a socially liberal, fiscally conservative, tough-on-crime executive who was arguably one of the US's most powerful mayors ever. Just 3 months ago, he had a fairly large lead in national polls and was a very serious contender for the GOP nomination. Giuliani's fundamental problem was that he was a one-trick pony. He was the 9/11 mayor, campaigning on national security and counterterrorism. The problem is that 9/11 was 7 years ago, and while this country certainly hasn't forgotten, it has moved on. Giuliani was trying to win votes on national security, while (not unlike 1992) his opponents are saying, "it's the economy, stupid!" Furthermore, on issues of terrorism and national security, Giuliani and McCain were very, very, very close, but McCain also offered discussion on economic and other domestic matters.
It's very hard to win if you're a single-issue candidate.
Having said all that, the Florida GOP primary may turn out to have decided this whole issue. Heading into Super Tuesday, McCain leads in California, Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, New York and Tennessee. Furthermore, NY, NJ, Missouri, Arizona, Utah, Connecticut, Delaware and Montana are all winner-take-all states. By my count, McCain is looking at 236 delegates, plus whatever he would get from proportional states. When all is said and done, I expect him to start Wednesday with something on the order of 400 more delegates than he has today. Momentum is everything, and right now, McCain is looking electable - especially if Clinton wins the Democrat nomination.
The Giuliani story is also interesting. He was "America's Mayor." He was a socially liberal, fiscally conservative, tough-on-crime executive who was arguably one of the US's most powerful mayors ever. Just 3 months ago, he had a fairly large lead in national polls and was a very serious contender for the GOP nomination. Giuliani's fundamental problem was that he was a one-trick pony. He was the 9/11 mayor, campaigning on national security and counterterrorism. The problem is that 9/11 was 7 years ago, and while this country certainly hasn't forgotten, it has moved on. Giuliani was trying to win votes on national security, while (not unlike 1992) his opponents are saying, "it's the economy, stupid!" Furthermore, on issues of terrorism and national security, Giuliani and McCain were very, very, very close, but McCain also offered discussion on economic and other domestic matters.
It's very hard to win if you're a single-issue candidate.
Having said all that, the Florida GOP primary may turn out to have decided this whole issue. Heading into Super Tuesday, McCain leads in California, Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, New York and Tennessee. Furthermore, NY, NJ, Missouri, Arizona, Utah, Connecticut, Delaware and Montana are all winner-take-all states. By my count, McCain is looking at 236 delegates, plus whatever he would get from proportional states. When all is said and done, I expect him to start Wednesday with something on the order of 400 more delegates than he has today. Momentum is everything, and right now, McCain is looking electable - especially if Clinton wins the Democrat nomination.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Paring things down further
Florida is voting today. For the Democrats, this means exactly nothing, since the party stripped all of Florida's delegates. This is bad news for Clinton, since her lead in Florida is pretty comfortable, and means exactly nothing. For the GOP, Florida is vital, because it's a winner-take-all state, and a big one. The most recent numbers have McCain and Romney in a statistical dead heat - less than 1% difference between the two. Giuliani is a very distant third, and has little real hope of winning.
If Giuliani fails to win Florida, I don't see how he'll be able to continue his campaign. I do think he will want to try to make it through Super Tuesday, but it's more probable he will look at his financial situation and what his numbers are like in the Super Tuesday states. Given that he's trailing in both New York and New Jersey, I wouldn't be surprised if he drops out later this week. Florida was to be where he made his stand and gained momentum heading into Super Tuesday, and that simply hasn't materialized.
The Clinton camp have become their own worst enemies. Bill's playing the race card has escalated the Democrat race from being cordial but contentious to being downright hostile. There's some serious bad blood there, and Hillary is taking the worst of it. She desperately needs to do some damage control, repair some bridges and shut her husband up ahead of Feb 5th if she wants to regain control of her destiny. There aren't enough delegates at stake to decide the winner on Feb. 5th, but if one candidate can dominate, that candidate will be very hard to beat. If Obama has a huge Super Tuesday, it'll be all over but the shouting.
If Giuliani fails to win Florida, I don't see how he'll be able to continue his campaign. I do think he will want to try to make it through Super Tuesday, but it's more probable he will look at his financial situation and what his numbers are like in the Super Tuesday states. Given that he's trailing in both New York and New Jersey, I wouldn't be surprised if he drops out later this week. Florida was to be where he made his stand and gained momentum heading into Super Tuesday, and that simply hasn't materialized.
The Clinton camp have become their own worst enemies. Bill's playing the race card has escalated the Democrat race from being cordial but contentious to being downright hostile. There's some serious bad blood there, and Hillary is taking the worst of it. She desperately needs to do some damage control, repair some bridges and shut her husband up ahead of Feb 5th if she wants to regain control of her destiny. There aren't enough delegates at stake to decide the winner on Feb. 5th, but if one candidate can dominate, that candidate will be very hard to beat. If Obama has a huge Super Tuesday, it'll be all over but the shouting.
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