At this point, I'm becoming increasingly comfortable in stating the race for the White House consists of four serious contenders, two on each side. Clinton is the hands-down favorite among Democrats, with Obama providing the only real challenge at this point. For the Republicans, it's Giuliani and Thompson.
The past 2 weeks have been disastrous for McCain. His campaign leadership is crumbling and his financial state is rapidly approaching dire. Barring a miracle, I'm guessing he'll be forced to withdraw much sooner than he anticipated.
John McCain is another interesting study in things not going the way they're supposed to. His 2000 campaign generated some buzz and a fair amount of name recognition. He established himself as the "moderate" Republican, capable of gathering crossover votes and willing to cooperate with Democrats. While he couldn't win the GOP nomination then, he was clearly the one holding the cards to be Bush's successor. And after the 2004 election, many moderate conservatives who were displeased with Bush saw him as a voice of reason among a runaway party.
At every turn since then, however, McCain has managed to find the path of least popular support. He has been a staunch supporter of the President and administration policies on the least popular issues, and countered the President on his strongest issues. His conservative credentials were already suspect to the point of being nearly irrecoverable, and he didn't help matters by blowing off a major gathering of conservative religious leaders - a gathering attended by Romney and (I believe) Giuliani. 4 years ago, McCain had the momentum, the popularity and the means to win the White House. Today, he's billing himself as George Bush III in a climate that wants precisely not that.
Thursday, July 19, 2007
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
It won't be long now...
The writing is on the wall for several candidates from both parties. The Democrat race is pretty much down to Clinton and Obama, and I feel it's only a matter of time before the others drop out. I expect Edwards will stay in the race for quite awhile yet, but I think he'd be better served saving face and dropping out so he can tend to his sick wife.
The Republican race is turning into a 3-horse battle among Giuliani, Thompson and Romney. McCain's numbers are currently OK, but they're sliding. He and Thompson are basically attractive to the same core group, and Thompson is winning that battle. More importantly, McCain's financial situation is becoming increasingly dire. He'll stick it out as long as possible, but as far as I'm concerned, his campaign is essentially over. As for Brownback, Paul et al, their 15 minutes are also up.
The Republican race is turning into a 3-horse battle among Giuliani, Thompson and Romney. McCain's numbers are currently OK, but they're sliding. He and Thompson are basically attractive to the same core group, and Thompson is winning that battle. More importantly, McCain's financial situation is becoming increasingly dire. He'll stick it out as long as possible, but as far as I'm concerned, his campaign is essentially over. As for Brownback, Paul et al, their 15 minutes are also up.
Tuesday, July 3, 2007
Anatomy of a Candidate: Hillary Clinton
As things stand right this minute, Hillary Clinton is the strongest candidate in the field. That doesn't mean she will necessarily win, or that I'm endorsing her, or that things won't change. It simply means that as of right now, she appears to have the best blend of money, strategy, platform, connections and persona. There is an incredible number of factors that make a candidate electable, and Clinton seems to have a very solid blend. On top of that, she's playing her cards extremely well right now.
Let me make it abundantly clear that as a voter, I don't care for Mrs. Clinton, but as a student of politics and the American political process, I find her situation very interesting.
If we turn back the clock to the mid-90s, we'll remember lots of jokes about the Clinton marriage and its troubles (such as the classic joke about Bill and Hillary hating each other because both were seeing the same woman.) Bill was all about Bill: during the 2000 campaign, he was conspicuously uninvolved with Gore's campaign. And we remember Whitewater and the Lewinsky affair. Hillary's first foray into politics on the national stage wasn't one to remember, with her abortive attempts at organizing health care reform. The Clintons were a powerful couple, but their marriage seemed dysfunctional. In fact, many observers thought that the marriage was one of convenience and that it was only a matter of time before the Clintons would divorce.
How times have changed. Hillary has used the ensuing time blazing her own path as a moderate Democrat, politically similar to her husband, but very much with her own take. One gets the impression that she makes her own political decisions and that she is not her husband's proxy. Meanwhile, Bill has assumed the mantle of being an elder statesman with much greater effectiveness than I would have given him credit for: the joint appearances and obvious friendship with former political enemy George Bush the Elder have effectively transformed him into a well-respected statesman in the mold of Jimmy Carter rather than a mere politician who is past his prime.
Furthermore, the Clintons have made their well-publicized marital woes into a sort of strength: while Bill split hairs publicly, everyone knows he had to face Hillary. And Hillary's response was that of a real woman who had suffered real betrayal and had to try to salvage a marriage from a bad situation. In other words, it was not the canned response of political spin doctors and handlers. When asked, she discusses the situation in very short, simple terms, then changes the subject, just as any other person would do. And by all appearances, the Clintons have mended their relationship. In fact, I would venture to say the couple are stronger and closer than ever.
What all this points to is that Hillary is made out to be a real person with real feelings and a real marriage with real issues. There is no fairy tale there. It's no jump at all to associate her also with having to make sure Chelsea did her homework, and changing diapers and dealing with the chicken pox and making out shopping lists and working in her law offices... in other words, living a life like the rest of us.
I don't know if it's true. I don't know what the actual status of her marriage is. I can only judge the product being sold, but whether genuine or planned, it's electoral gold.
Let me make it abundantly clear that as a voter, I don't care for Mrs. Clinton, but as a student of politics and the American political process, I find her situation very interesting.
If we turn back the clock to the mid-90s, we'll remember lots of jokes about the Clinton marriage and its troubles (such as the classic joke about Bill and Hillary hating each other because both were seeing the same woman.) Bill was all about Bill: during the 2000 campaign, he was conspicuously uninvolved with Gore's campaign. And we remember Whitewater and the Lewinsky affair. Hillary's first foray into politics on the national stage wasn't one to remember, with her abortive attempts at organizing health care reform. The Clintons were a powerful couple, but their marriage seemed dysfunctional. In fact, many observers thought that the marriage was one of convenience and that it was only a matter of time before the Clintons would divorce.
How times have changed. Hillary has used the ensuing time blazing her own path as a moderate Democrat, politically similar to her husband, but very much with her own take. One gets the impression that she makes her own political decisions and that she is not her husband's proxy. Meanwhile, Bill has assumed the mantle of being an elder statesman with much greater effectiveness than I would have given him credit for: the joint appearances and obvious friendship with former political enemy George Bush the Elder have effectively transformed him into a well-respected statesman in the mold of Jimmy Carter rather than a mere politician who is past his prime.
Furthermore, the Clintons have made their well-publicized marital woes into a sort of strength: while Bill split hairs publicly, everyone knows he had to face Hillary. And Hillary's response was that of a real woman who had suffered real betrayal and had to try to salvage a marriage from a bad situation. In other words, it was not the canned response of political spin doctors and handlers. When asked, she discusses the situation in very short, simple terms, then changes the subject, just as any other person would do. And by all appearances, the Clintons have mended their relationship. In fact, I would venture to say the couple are stronger and closer than ever.
What all this points to is that Hillary is made out to be a real person with real feelings and a real marriage with real issues. There is no fairy tale there. It's no jump at all to associate her also with having to make sure Chelsea did her homework, and changing diapers and dealing with the chicken pox and making out shopping lists and working in her law offices... in other words, living a life like the rest of us.
I don't know if it's true. I don't know what the actual status of her marriage is. I can only judge the product being sold, but whether genuine or planned, it's electoral gold.
The money trail
I have to admit, I was shocked at how well Obama's fundraising is going. There is a very strong correlation between spending and success in elections, so this bodes well for Obama's campaign. Clinton isn't too far behind, however, so she won't be relinquishing her lead easily. On the other side of the coin, McCain's campaign is in serious financial trouble, with only about $2 million remaining in the coffers. He says he's in it for the long haul, but I'm beginning to wonder if he'll even last past the New Hampshire primary.
McCain's campaign has been in trouble for months. If he were smart, he'd drop out sooner rather than later.
McCain's campaign has been in trouble for months. If he were smart, he'd drop out sooner rather than later.
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