Second Fiddle Part II

Yesterday I took a look at some possible Democrat VP candidates. It was not an exhaustive list by any stretch of the imagination, but it did assume that Clinton gets the Democrat nod. The GOP situation is much, much... well, to say it's murky would rather understate things.

What we do know about the GOP situation is this: Giuliani is currently in control, but not nearly in the same way Clinton is. We also know that he is somewhere between "holding your nose" and "completely and utterly unpalatable" for the religious/moral wing of the Republican party. His popularity derives from the public face he put forward following 9/11 and his "cleaning up" of New York City. His whole deal is national security and tough on crime, and for those who are primarily interested in that, he's extremely popular.

Giuliani's problem is that every Republican candidate knows that you need the moral/religious wing not only behind you, but excited about you if you're going to win the Presidency. And the morality folks are split. None of the other GOP candidates really has that "wow" factor among the so-called "Moral Majority", so VP selection will be that much more crucial.

Unlike the Democrat situation, I wouldn't be surprised to see a number of current candidates also be willing to consider the VP slot. The main ones I think would not would be Giuliani, Thompson and McCain. One other thing: I sincerely doubt that people too closely associated with the current administration will get a second look. With very few exceptions, being associated with the Bush administration would be a death knell to a current candidate. So let's take a look at who we might be dealing with, shall we?

At the top of the list would be Mitt Romney. I sincerely doubt Giuliani would take him (again, that New York-Massachusetts thing), but Thompson-Romney or McCain-Romney would both be viable. Romney's biggest weaknesses are that he's not Protestant and that he's a recent convert to the pro-life movement, raising questions as to whether his conversion was politically motivated or is "genuine." Nevertheless, he's handled himself well and would likely be more of an asset than a liability for a GOP candidate not named "Rudolph".

Elizabeth Dole would have to be the #2 target. Her conservative credentials are well-established, she invokes that vague Reagan Conservatism feeling, she's from the GOP "core" and she's got the administrative and "real world" experience to make her an attractive running mate. In many respects, she's the anti-Hillary.

It is very likely Colin Powell's name will come up, but I have a hard time believing he would give it any serious consideration. For starters, his wife doesn't want him holding elected office. And I imagine his experience as Secretary of State really soured him on the GOP. I'm guessing he'll be approached quietly, but won't want to get involved.

Another interesting possibility would be Michigan governor Jennifer Granholm. She's not the most popular person in the state right now, but she does have a fair amount of political clout there. Putting her on the ticket could make Michigan a red state, which would put a real hurt on Hillary's chances. I do think that women being viewed as potential running mates will get extra attention this time out.

The ideal VP candidate for Giuliani is (unfortunately for him) unable to run due to Constitutional issues. I'm speaking, of course of Arnold Schwarzenegger. It's a pipe dream, but the combination kinda makes sense.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Ron Paul mentioned in association with a couple other candidacies, mostly because he's generated far more buzz than his exceedingly-long-shot campaign has any right to expect. He's become the darling of the internet's libertarians (i.e. frequenters of digg and slashdot.) He's not a likely candidate, but generating too much buzz to ignore. Another outside possibility is Newt Gingrich. He's been trying to orchestrate a 1994-ish return to "conservative family values." The question is whether the public remembers why he left office to begin with. Something in the back of my mind tells me we should also be paying attention to MN governor Tim Pawlenty. Apparently he's a rising star within the GOP.

As for my utterly whacked-out "hey, it could happen!" ultra-long-shot prediction, try this on for size: the Indianapolis Colts go on to have another great year and go on to win the Super Bowl. Head coach Tony Dungy decides to go out on top (he's been mulling retirement and wants to do some real good in the world.) The GOP decides they want to counter Hillary with a high-profile African-American who is well-known, widely respected and will appeal to practicing Christians. Who cares if he's never held public office? Hey, it could happen! (Disclaimer: I have no idea what Dungy's political leanings are, but the idea is just so crazy it might work.)