Comeback Kids

The New Hampshire primaries were yesterday. I find it amusing that the media outlets are trumpeting Clinton's "upset" over Obama and McCain's upset over Romney. Granted, Clinton's third-place showing in Iowa raised some questions about her long-term viability, and the run-up polls showed Obama surging to a near double-digit lead. The thing is, up until last weekend, Clinton had been the leader in New Hampshire. Let's break this down, shall we?

Winners:
Hillary Clinton. She was not expected to win in Iowa, but third place was a stinging setback for her. While I had anticipated her winning in New Hampshire, the major media outlets did not, so this actually makes her campaign look more resilient than it actually is. This could pay off in Nevada and South Carolina.

Barack Obama. Even though very late polls had predicted a win for him, losing by 2 points to the 20-ton gorilla is no mean feat. A win in Iowa and a razor-thin defeat in New Hampshire demonstrate his viability as a candidate.

John McCain. He desperately needed this one to keep his campaign hopes alive, although I think the media is making too much of his chances as a candidate. I will be shocked if he wins the presidential nomination, but he's still alive - for now.

Mike Huckabee. Finishing third in a state in which he had spent very little time and money campaigning is very, very good, and indicative of the growing strength of his national campaign.

Losers:
Rudi Giuliani. The presumptive GOP front-runner has now finished 6th in Iowa and 4th in New Hampshire. He's not just losing, he's losing badly. National polling shows his support is dropping hard, and depending on which poll you follow, he's now somewhere between 3rd and 4th overall.

Fred Thompson. For all intents and purposes, his campaign is over. The segment he was trying to attract have all gone to Huckabee, McCain or Romney. Don't be surprised to see Thompson withdraw if he fares poorly in South Carolina.

Mitt Romney. His campaign is still strong, but he desperately needed a win in his back yard to keep his presidential aspirations alive. He's going to find campaigning in the South very difficult, and failing to win a key New England race really sets him back. He might have won, if not for Huckabee.

John Edwards. He needed another strong showing to prove he belonged in the conversation with Clinton and Obama, and he didn't get it. He's still very much alive, but New Hampshire proved that the Democrat race is Clinton v. Obama.