Role reversal

Well, that was fun.

Three months ago, it was common knowledge that by this point, Hillary's nomination would be little more than a formality, while the GOP race would be highly contentious and very muddled. The one thing we could be reasonably certain of was that McCain would be out, and Giuliani would be a front-runner. Then reality set in, and I can't think of a single analysis or prediction I've seen that would have indicated things would play out the way they have. (I take campaign predictions with a grain of salt, because they expect to win.)

With Romney's endorsement of McCain, the GOP picture is essentially a done deal. At this point, it's all about convincing Huckabee to punt (because the longer he campaigns, even though he can no longer get the required number of delegates, the more dissent he stirs) and uniting the GOP core behind McCain. I'm hearing rumors that it is now McCain, not Bush, who is setting the GOP legislative agenda, and that fights are being chosen based on what will benefit McCain's candidacy.

Thus, we must now turn our attention to the Democrats. If you listen to the media, Obama's got this one in the bag. Hillary can't win, she's on the ropes, etc. If you look at the delegate counts, the story is very different. This one's a race. It just so happens that Obama has the lead and the momentum at the moment, but, unlike Huckabee, Clinton is still very much alive. She just needs to convince a lot of people that the perception is not equal to the reality of the situation.

Make no mistake: Obama is the media darling, and is attracting enormous attention with his populist message of hope. The thing is, this populist message of hope is very short on specifics and very short on concrete policy - and the concrete policy and voting record to be found indicates someone who is much, much further to the left than many voters realize. I'm hearing quiet rumblings of concern that his wave of momentum and enthusiasm will come crashing down well before November, but well after it's too late for the Democrats to do anything about it.

With Bush's lack of popularity, common wisdom would have indicated that the Democrat nominee (Clinton, presumptively) was a shoe-in for the White House. As this has played out, the Democrats have done a masterful job of shooting themselves in the foot, giving the GOP a very good chance at holding on to the Presidency: Obama may lead in many polls, but remember that at the end of the day, it's about electoral votes, and I don't see Obama taking states away from the GOP - and the DNC's primary antics in Florida and Michigan may have ensured that they vote Republican.