First things first: John McCain has officially sewn up the GOP nomination. He's over the needed delegate count, and Huckabee has withdrawn from the race. For McCain, the campaign for November 4 starts today.
Hillary desperately needed to win in Ohio and Texas to keep her candidacy alive. Okay, mathematically, that was somewhat hyperbolic, but she was clearly losing ground. Taking 3 of the 4 Democrat primaries yesterday (she also took Rhode Island, while Obama took Vermont) broke Obama's winning streak and showed her campaign is still viable. What is particularly interesting is that Clinton had lost ground, and regained the lead only in the last few days. The fact that she was able to recover from Obama's seemingly insurmountable swell of momentum is in itself quite noteworthy. What happened?
I think a number of factors are at stake here. Many analysts are claiming that Clinton's most recent ad campaign (who do you want answering the phone at 3am if there's a crisis) has had an effect. It's also true that the media are now picking up on the fact that they've essentially turned Obama into their darling, so they're starting to train their guns on him. And there's a good chance there was some crossover voting by GOP members wanting to set the Republicans up for victory in November by electing their desired opposition.
One other thing Hillary did, and which I think was critical, was that she showed some levity in the final days leading up to these primaries in showing up on Saturday Night Live and The Daily Show. I watched her Daily Show segment, and it seemed to me she did everything just about right. Jon Stewart opened the segment by asking what she was doing appearing on his show just hours before the primary rather than campaigning, and she replied, "I know. Pathetic, isn't it?"
It's too early to say she's righted the ship, but I will say this: had Obama won either Texas or Ohio, Hillary's campaign would have been put on life support. Obama still has the delegate lead, but this one is still too close to call - and the superdelegates are now looming larger and larger.
In unrelated news, it looks like Indiana might actually get a say in who the Democrat candidate is.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Friday, February 15, 2008
Role reversal
Well, that was fun.
Three months ago, it was common knowledge that by this point, Hillary's nomination would be little more than a formality, while the GOP race would be highly contentious and very muddled. The one thing we could be reasonably certain of was that McCain would be out, and Giuliani would be a front-runner. Then reality set in, and I can't think of a single analysis or prediction I've seen that would have indicated things would play out the way they have. (I take campaign predictions with a grain of salt, because they expect to win.)
With Romney's endorsement of McCain, the GOP picture is essentially a done deal. At this point, it's all about convincing Huckabee to punt (because the longer he campaigns, even though he can no longer get the required number of delegates, the more dissent he stirs) and uniting the GOP core behind McCain. I'm hearing rumors that it is now McCain, not Bush, who is setting the GOP legislative agenda, and that fights are being chosen based on what will benefit McCain's candidacy.
Thus, we must now turn our attention to the Democrats. If you listen to the media, Obama's got this one in the bag. Hillary can't win, she's on the ropes, etc. If you look at the delegate counts, the story is very different. This one's a race. It just so happens that Obama has the lead and the momentum at the moment, but, unlike Huckabee, Clinton is still very much alive. She just needs to convince a lot of people that the perception is not equal to the reality of the situation.
Make no mistake: Obama is the media darling, and is attracting enormous attention with his populist message of hope. The thing is, this populist message of hope is very short on specifics and very short on concrete policy - and the concrete policy and voting record to be found indicates someone who is much, much further to the left than many voters realize. I'm hearing quiet rumblings of concern that his wave of momentum and enthusiasm will come crashing down well before November, but well after it's too late for the Democrats to do anything about it.
With Bush's lack of popularity, common wisdom would have indicated that the Democrat nominee (Clinton, presumptively) was a shoe-in for the White House. As this has played out, the Democrats have done a masterful job of shooting themselves in the foot, giving the GOP a very good chance at holding on to the Presidency: Obama may lead in many polls, but remember that at the end of the day, it's about electoral votes, and I don't see Obama taking states away from the GOP - and the DNC's primary antics in Florida and Michigan may have ensured that they vote Republican.
Three months ago, it was common knowledge that by this point, Hillary's nomination would be little more than a formality, while the GOP race would be highly contentious and very muddled. The one thing we could be reasonably certain of was that McCain would be out, and Giuliani would be a front-runner. Then reality set in, and I can't think of a single analysis or prediction I've seen that would have indicated things would play out the way they have. (I take campaign predictions with a grain of salt, because they expect to win.)
With Romney's endorsement of McCain, the GOP picture is essentially a done deal. At this point, it's all about convincing Huckabee to punt (because the longer he campaigns, even though he can no longer get the required number of delegates, the more dissent he stirs) and uniting the GOP core behind McCain. I'm hearing rumors that it is now McCain, not Bush, who is setting the GOP legislative agenda, and that fights are being chosen based on what will benefit McCain's candidacy.
Thus, we must now turn our attention to the Democrats. If you listen to the media, Obama's got this one in the bag. Hillary can't win, she's on the ropes, etc. If you look at the delegate counts, the story is very different. This one's a race. It just so happens that Obama has the lead and the momentum at the moment, but, unlike Huckabee, Clinton is still very much alive. She just needs to convince a lot of people that the perception is not equal to the reality of the situation.
Make no mistake: Obama is the media darling, and is attracting enormous attention with his populist message of hope. The thing is, this populist message of hope is very short on specifics and very short on concrete policy - and the concrete policy and voting record to be found indicates someone who is much, much further to the left than many voters realize. I'm hearing quiet rumblings of concern that his wave of momentum and enthusiasm will come crashing down well before November, but well after it's too late for the Democrats to do anything about it.
With Bush's lack of popularity, common wisdom would have indicated that the Democrat nominee (Clinton, presumptively) was a shoe-in for the White House. As this has played out, the Democrats have done a masterful job of shooting themselves in the foot, giving the GOP a very good chance at holding on to the Presidency: Obama may lead in many polls, but remember that at the end of the day, it's about electoral votes, and I don't see Obama taking states away from the GOP - and the DNC's primary antics in Florida and Michigan may have ensured that they vote Republican.
Monday, February 11, 2008
W(h)ither Hillary?
The Clinton camp is reeling: Obama now leads in terms of money, spending and pledged delegates. He's getting the bigger-name endorsements and appears to be the media's favorite. Hillary is now struggling to keep pace, and the erstwhile shoe-in is fighting for her campaign's viability. To be fair, the delegate numbers are very, very close, and Obama has not won the nomination by a long shot. As of right now, though, Hillary's short-term prospects are pretty bleak. Tomorrow, Virginia, Maryland and Washington, DC will hold their primaries, and Obama has a very comfortable lead in those areas. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Obama opens up a 150-delegate lead by Wednesday. Clinton is going to be in damage control mode until March 4th, when Texas and Ohio vote: she needs to win those states convincingly to keep her hopes alive.
I wouldn't write her off quite yet, however. While the GOP race isn't yet settled, the language coming out of GOP leadership is consistent with that of a party viewing things as a done deal: party leaders are trying to get the conservative wing to play ball with McCain, and are talking in terms of presenting a unified front in November. This is important because in states that have open primaries, there is the very real possibility that many of the GOP faithful will cross party lines and vote for Hillary, particularly in states like Texas. The simple fact of the matter is that the Republicans know that if it comes to McCain vs. Clinton, their odds are very, very good. They're not so confident if Obama wins the nod. If the GOP race is decided, they may want to set Clinton up for failure.
I wouldn't write her off quite yet, however. While the GOP race isn't yet settled, the language coming out of GOP leadership is consistent with that of a party viewing things as a done deal: party leaders are trying to get the conservative wing to play ball with McCain, and are talking in terms of presenting a unified front in November. This is important because in states that have open primaries, there is the very real possibility that many of the GOP faithful will cross party lines and vote for Hillary, particularly in states like Texas. The simple fact of the matter is that the Republicans know that if it comes to McCain vs. Clinton, their odds are very, very good. They're not so confident if Obama wins the nod. If the GOP race is decided, they may want to set Clinton up for failure.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Well, that was fun
At this point, it is highly unlikely that anyone but McCain will win the GOP nomination. He has a commanding lead and lots of momentum. In spite of Huckabee's stumping, the language being used now by both McCain and GOP leadership indicate that they are treating him as the presumptive candidate, and are now focusing on reuniting the party behind McCain.
Pundits like Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter need to tread carefully here. Romney said he was suspending his campaign because minor party disagreements pale in comparison to the fundamental ideological disagreements the GOP faces vis a vis the Democrats, and he recognizes the importance of presenting a unified front. As things stand right now, in a theoretical head-to-head campaign, McCain would defeat Clinton and is within just a couple of percentage points of Obama. The Democrat battle promises to be long and hard-fought, and may not be revealed for another two or three months - time McCain has to find a running mate, solidify his platform and raise money.
Limbaugh and Coulter are screaming bloody murder about McCain. He's not conservative enough, they say. He's too soft on immigration and didn't back Bush's tax cuts enough, they say. He didn't back the Constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. These are cardinal sins to them, enough that they're threatening to try to form a third party or encourage voters to vote for Clinton or Obama. This is sheer lunacy on their parts. Think about it for a moment: they're threating to vote for someone with whom they disagree about everything because they're throwing a hissy fit about someone with whom they disagree about some stuff. That's real brilliant, there.
Pundits like Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter need to tread carefully here. Romney said he was suspending his campaign because minor party disagreements pale in comparison to the fundamental ideological disagreements the GOP faces vis a vis the Democrats, and he recognizes the importance of presenting a unified front. As things stand right now, in a theoretical head-to-head campaign, McCain would defeat Clinton and is within just a couple of percentage points of Obama. The Democrat battle promises to be long and hard-fought, and may not be revealed for another two or three months - time McCain has to find a running mate, solidify his platform and raise money.
Limbaugh and Coulter are screaming bloody murder about McCain. He's not conservative enough, they say. He's too soft on immigration and didn't back Bush's tax cuts enough, they say. He didn't back the Constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. These are cardinal sins to them, enough that they're threatening to try to form a third party or encourage voters to vote for Clinton or Obama. This is sheer lunacy on their parts. Think about it for a moment: they're threating to vote for someone with whom they disagree about everything because they're throwing a hissy fit about someone with whom they disagree about some stuff. That's real brilliant, there.
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