My kingdom for a viable candidate!

Dick Cheney has decided he's not a member of the Executive Branch of the United States government. George W. Bush has decided he doesn't need to answer to the federal government's watchdog to ensure classified materials are being handled properly. Not only do they think they're above the law, they flaunt it openly. And the Democrats still can't exploit it. Recent opinion polls show that the public is just as disgusted with Congressional Democrats as they are with Republicans across the board.

Up until now, it's almost been a fait accompli that the Democrat candidate would win the White House (at least, if you believe the word on the street, which isn't always the best idea.) At this point, I don't see Hillary not winning the Democrat nomination, but her status as a Senate Democrat (among other things) will come back to haunt her. Meanwhile, Giuliani's campaign has suffered a series of setbacks: his South Carolina campaign chairman's indictment on cocaine charges, his skipping Iraq study group meetings and the defection of successor Michael Bloomberg away from the GOP have all hurt his standing. His relationship with accused molester priest Msgr. Alan Placa doesn't help matters at all, either.

In the national polls, Giuliani still seems to be holding his own, but recent polls in Iowa and South Carolina are sobering: a Mason-Dixon poll from 6/13-6/16 has Romney and Thompson 1 and 2. Even more stunning is that McCain dropped all the way from around 25% at the end of May to 6%. In Mason-Dixon's South Carolina poll (same dates), Thompson leads Giuliani 25-21, with McCain down to 7%. And the Mason-Dixon poll (6/20-6/22) for Nevada shows Thompson and Romney ahead of Giuliani there, as well.

As I mentioned previously, elections are all about numbers: a candidate is less interested in a raw number of votes and more interested in winning states and the attendant voters for the conventions/Electoral College. The way things look right now, both Thompson and Romney are poised to gain early momentum in some high-visibility early states - the sort of momentum which could mobilize supporters and establish one of them as the early favorite.

Giuliani has a difficult battle ahead of him. As for McCain, I think his candidacy is in much more serious trouble than he realizes.