Rewind to 2000

In the aftermath of the 1996 election in which Bill Clinton handily beat Bob Dole, Republicans immediately started planning for the inevitable 2000 showdown against Al Gore. Gore's candidacy was practically a given, and the GOP knew they'd need to field a strong candidate. Almost immediately, George W. Bush's name rose to the top of the list (this was in very early 1997, I believe, and possibly even earlier.) Bush had his infrastructure and campaign team together very early and was able to hit the campaign trail early and hard. In early 1999, John McCain made things interesting, but the GOP was quietly already married to Bush. I still think McCain could have won a 3-way election among himself, Bush and Gore, but campaign law being what it is, it didn't play out that way.

Fast forward to November, 2004. George Bush wins re-election over John Kerry, and it's already understood that Hillary Clinton is the leading Democrat candidate for the 2008 election. She has her contacts and her husband's contacts, she's been through two presidential campaigns already and she has a lot of resources. Her war chest has been building for a long time - I have to believe it's been building since as early as 2000 or 2001. Barack Obama is making things interesting, but his infrastructure isn't nearly as well-constructed, well-funded or experienced as Hillary's. Sure, there are some parts of the Democrat Party who don't approve of her, but her act is together and she's presenting herself very well as a polished candidate. More importantly, she's being taken seriously as "the" candidate by the mainstream press.

It's pretty much reached the point at which the nomination is Clinton's to lose, rather than to win.