Thinning the herd

As predicted, both Giuliani and Edwards are out of the race. Edwards is out for two major reasons: first, he mistook a strong showing as John Kerry's underling as support: in truth, Kerry/Edwards was the definition of "bland left-wing ticket", and their "support" was more a function of opposition to the Bush administration than any interest in those candidates as leaders. The candidacy gave him name recognition, but it didn't do much to help his standing as an effective or vibrant leader. The other issue is that he tried to force himself into what's really become an important discussion in the Democrat Party, between the stalwart party establishment (backing Clinton) and the "next generation" of Democrats looking for a fresh face with a fresh perspective (Obama.) It was apparent to me four years ago that this discussion was on the horizon and that Obama represented the future of the Democrats. And in this dynamic, Edwards gets left out in the cold.

The Giuliani story is also interesting. He was "America's Mayor." He was a socially liberal, fiscally conservative, tough-on-crime executive who was arguably one of the US's most powerful mayors ever. Just 3 months ago, he had a fairly large lead in national polls and was a very serious contender for the GOP nomination. Giuliani's fundamental problem was that he was a one-trick pony. He was the 9/11 mayor, campaigning on national security and counterterrorism. The problem is that 9/11 was 7 years ago, and while this country certainly hasn't forgotten, it has moved on. Giuliani was trying to win votes on national security, while (not unlike 1992) his opponents are saying, "it's the economy, stupid!" Furthermore, on issues of terrorism and national security, Giuliani and McCain were very, very, very close, but McCain also offered discussion on economic and other domestic matters.

It's very hard to win if you're a single-issue candidate.

Having said all that, the Florida GOP primary may turn out to have decided this whole issue. Heading into Super Tuesday, McCain leads in California, Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, New York and Tennessee. Furthermore, NY, NJ, Missouri, Arizona, Utah, Connecticut, Delaware and Montana are all winner-take-all states. By my count, McCain is looking at 236 delegates, plus whatever he would get from proportional states. When all is said and done, I expect him to start Wednesday with something on the order of 400 more delegates than he has today. Momentum is everything, and right now, McCain is looking electable - especially if Clinton wins the Democrat nomination.