What's with this mindset?

I had a conversation with someone yesterday (who shall remain nameless) who stated, in as many words, that McCain's selection of Palin was an insult to women. The implication was, of course, that McCain's team's thought process was something along the lines of "there are lots of women voters who will vote for whichever female is on the ballot, so I'll steal Hillary's backers!" So because of the implication that McCain's team used this as their primary motivation, the selection of Palin is suddenly insulting to women.

The more I think about it, the more irritated this attitude makes me. It's a very simplistic view that reeks more of cop-out propaganda than it does of well-reasoned argument (something I would have expected from my co-conversant.) The implication there is that only the Democrats are allowed to nominate women (and, by extension, minorities.) When the Democrats put a woman and a black on the ballot, it's "historic" and "unprecedented." When the Republicans put a woman on the ballot, it's "insulting" (never mind that Palin is showing some of the politics that put her on the ticket, while Mondale's selection of Geraldine Ferraro was obviously and overtly pandering to women.)

I respect well-reasoned political arguments, and I can accept support of or opposition to candidates based on a variety of valid reasons. But this opinion fails on so many levels, it's not funny. It's like this person - a very intelligent, well-educated and experienced person - suddenly lost all sense of perspective and decided to regurgitate the garbage put out by the Daily Kos and Moveon.org without passing through any sort of intellectual filter. God gave you a brain. Use it.

Lots to report

It occurs to me it's been awhile since I've written anything here. So the tickets are Obama-Biden and McCain-Palin. I don't like the Biden pick at all. It's Senator - former Senator, which is very bad for the experience factor, even though Biden is an old veteran. It also weakens Obama's Washington Outsider card.

The Palin pick, on the other hand, is sheer genius, I think (media notwithstanding.) She's not very experienced (which hurts that argument, but McCain's played that out), but she does have executive experience and she's very much got that reformer/Washington outsider thing going. I've got a lot of intelligent stuff to say about this whole dealie, but I need time to collect my thoughts. So instead, I'm going to rant a bit.

Chris turned on the TV this morning and Good Morning America was on. Merideth Viera was "interviewing" a McCain spokesperson about the fact that Palin's 17-year-old daughter got herself knocked up, and how dare they not bring that to light during Palin's introduction as the VP candidate (WTF??) and why did they wait so long to announce this. Because, you know, from Friday to Monday is an eternity. How dare they wait 3 whole days? What a scandal! What a cover-up! And then she lit into another GOP spokesperson, ripping her for essentially the same thing, and boy did they do a bad job of vetting the candidate, etc. Never mind that everyone in Alaska pretty much knew the deal.

And the real tragedy? Her family's personal life was laid out bare because some Obamanite bloggers decided to spread rumors that her infant with Down Syndrome was actually this same daughter's. (I'm going to be rude and presume these are the same bloggers who cried "for shame" when conservative bloggers ripped Michele Obama for not being patriotic enough.)

How do you like them apples?

The latest polls have Hillary moving back in front of Obama, in terms of popular support. The most recent Gallup poll gives Hillary a 5-point lead (margin of error on this poll is +/-3%). Unfortunately for Hillary's supporters, this rush for lots of early primaries means Obama will still be very difficult to overcome. That said, I have to think public opinion will have some impact on the superdelegates. Hillary is still mathematically in the race, but needs not only to win the rest, but to dominate.

It also appears that the Republicans' strategy of early concession to the front-runner is paying off. McCain has the luxury of sitting back and running a lower-key campaign while Obama and Clinton snipe at each other, stripping away each other's support. Race and sex are now on the table as issues, regardless of the candidates' druthers. And the Democrats are making these the issues in the primaries, which is utterly lethal.

There's a long way to go yet, and a lot can happen. By all rights, the Republicans have no business expecting to win this election, yet here they are, perfectly poised to hold onto the White House. And the Democrat situation won't clear up any time soon.

When it rains, it pours

So this hybrid primary/caucus deal in Texas means Hillary didn't actually "win" Texas: Obama got more delegates in the end. I'm still trying to figure that one out.
Then one of her key supporters and advisers tries playing the race card again, even though her campaign is actively trying to get people not to bring it up.
The icing on the cake is that another very influential and important supporter (and superdelegate) is then found to have spent tens of thousands of dollars on upscale prostitutes. And while we all acknowledge that politicians engaging in extramarital sex is nothing new, a former state attorney general with a platform of stamping out corruption and being tough on crime being caught engaging in this sort of activity, well, that's either extraordinarily hypocritical or just desserts, depending on your point of view.

Anyway, if you're Hillary, this presidential campaign is turning into an unmitigated disaster, and to be honest, a lot of it is not her fault. She can't control her husband's mouth, she certainly can't control Geraldine Ferraro, she didn't set Michigan's or Florida's primary dates or Texas's delegate allocation rules, and so forth. Not that Hillary is completely an innocent victim, here: she made several blunders along the way. But it seems to me that she is as much a victim of circumstance as her own failings. Them's the breaks!

What do we now know?

First things first: John McCain has officially sewn up the GOP nomination. He's over the needed delegate count, and Huckabee has withdrawn from the race. For McCain, the campaign for November 4 starts today.

Hillary desperately needed to win in Ohio and Texas to keep her candidacy alive. Okay, mathematically, that was somewhat hyperbolic, but she was clearly losing ground. Taking 3 of the 4 Democrat primaries yesterday (she also took Rhode Island, while Obama took Vermont) broke Obama's winning streak and showed her campaign is still viable. What is particularly interesting is that Clinton had lost ground, and regained the lead only in the last few days. The fact that she was able to recover from Obama's seemingly insurmountable swell of momentum is in itself quite noteworthy. What happened?

I think a number of factors are at stake here. Many analysts are claiming that Clinton's most recent ad campaign (who do you want answering the phone at 3am if there's a crisis) has had an effect. It's also true that the media are now picking up on the fact that they've essentially turned Obama into their darling, so they're starting to train their guns on him. And there's a good chance there was some crossover voting by GOP members wanting to set the Republicans up for victory in November by electing their desired opposition.

One other thing Hillary did, and which I think was critical, was that she showed some levity in the final days leading up to these primaries in showing up on Saturday Night Live and The Daily Show. I watched her Daily Show segment, and it seemed to me she did everything just about right. Jon Stewart opened the segment by asking what she was doing appearing on his show just hours before the primary rather than campaigning, and she replied, "I know. Pathetic, isn't it?"

It's too early to say she's righted the ship, but I will say this: had Obama won either Texas or Ohio, Hillary's campaign would have been put on life support. Obama still has the delegate lead, but this one is still too close to call - and the superdelegates are now looming larger and larger.

In unrelated news, it looks like Indiana might actually get a say in who the Democrat candidate is.

Role reversal

Well, that was fun.

Three months ago, it was common knowledge that by this point, Hillary's nomination would be little more than a formality, while the GOP race would be highly contentious and very muddled. The one thing we could be reasonably certain of was that McCain would be out, and Giuliani would be a front-runner. Then reality set in, and I can't think of a single analysis or prediction I've seen that would have indicated things would play out the way they have. (I take campaign predictions with a grain of salt, because they expect to win.)

With Romney's endorsement of McCain, the GOP picture is essentially a done deal. At this point, it's all about convincing Huckabee to punt (because the longer he campaigns, even though he can no longer get the required number of delegates, the more dissent he stirs) and uniting the GOP core behind McCain. I'm hearing rumors that it is now McCain, not Bush, who is setting the GOP legislative agenda, and that fights are being chosen based on what will benefit McCain's candidacy.

Thus, we must now turn our attention to the Democrats. If you listen to the media, Obama's got this one in the bag. Hillary can't win, she's on the ropes, etc. If you look at the delegate counts, the story is very different. This one's a race. It just so happens that Obama has the lead and the momentum at the moment, but, unlike Huckabee, Clinton is still very much alive. She just needs to convince a lot of people that the perception is not equal to the reality of the situation.

Make no mistake: Obama is the media darling, and is attracting enormous attention with his populist message of hope. The thing is, this populist message of hope is very short on specifics and very short on concrete policy - and the concrete policy and voting record to be found indicates someone who is much, much further to the left than many voters realize. I'm hearing quiet rumblings of concern that his wave of momentum and enthusiasm will come crashing down well before November, but well after it's too late for the Democrats to do anything about it.

With Bush's lack of popularity, common wisdom would have indicated that the Democrat nominee (Clinton, presumptively) was a shoe-in for the White House. As this has played out, the Democrats have done a masterful job of shooting themselves in the foot, giving the GOP a very good chance at holding on to the Presidency: Obama may lead in many polls, but remember that at the end of the day, it's about electoral votes, and I don't see Obama taking states away from the GOP - and the DNC's primary antics in Florida and Michigan may have ensured that they vote Republican.

W(h)ither Hillary?

The Clinton camp is reeling: Obama now leads in terms of money, spending and pledged delegates. He's getting the bigger-name endorsements and appears to be the media's favorite. Hillary is now struggling to keep pace, and the erstwhile shoe-in is fighting for her campaign's viability. To be fair, the delegate numbers are very, very close, and Obama has not won the nomination by a long shot. As of right now, though, Hillary's short-term prospects are pretty bleak. Tomorrow, Virginia, Maryland and Washington, DC will hold their primaries, and Obama has a very comfortable lead in those areas. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Obama opens up a 150-delegate lead by Wednesday. Clinton is going to be in damage control mode until March 4th, when Texas and Ohio vote: she needs to win those states convincingly to keep her hopes alive.

I wouldn't write her off quite yet, however. While the GOP race isn't yet settled, the language coming out of GOP leadership is consistent with that of a party viewing things as a done deal: party leaders are trying to get the conservative wing to play ball with McCain, and are talking in terms of presenting a unified front in November. This is important because in states that have open primaries, there is the very real possibility that many of the GOP faithful will cross party lines and vote for Hillary, particularly in states like Texas. The simple fact of the matter is that the Republicans know that if it comes to McCain vs. Clinton, their odds are very, very good. They're not so confident if Obama wins the nod. If the GOP race is decided, they may want to set Clinton up for failure.

Well, that was fun

At this point, it is highly unlikely that anyone but McCain will win the GOP nomination. He has a commanding lead and lots of momentum. In spite of Huckabee's stumping, the language being used now by both McCain and GOP leadership indicate that they are treating him as the presumptive candidate, and are now focusing on reuniting the party behind McCain.

Pundits like Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter need to tread carefully here. Romney said he was suspending his campaign because minor party disagreements pale in comparison to the fundamental ideological disagreements the GOP faces vis a vis the Democrats, and he recognizes the importance of presenting a unified front. As things stand right now, in a theoretical head-to-head campaign, McCain would defeat Clinton and is within just a couple of percentage points of Obama. The Democrat battle promises to be long and hard-fought, and may not be revealed for another two or three months - time McCain has to find a running mate, solidify his platform and raise money.

Limbaugh and Coulter are screaming bloody murder about McCain. He's not conservative enough, they say. He's too soft on immigration and didn't back Bush's tax cuts enough, they say. He didn't back the Constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. These are cardinal sins to them, enough that they're threatening to try to form a third party or encourage voters to vote for Clinton or Obama. This is sheer lunacy on their parts. Think about it for a moment: they're threating to vote for someone with whom they disagree about everything because they're throwing a hissy fit about someone with whom they disagree about some stuff. That's real brilliant, there.

Some quick GOP math

As mentioned previously, it takes 1191 delegates to win the GOP nomination. So far, by my count, 1207 delegates have been selected, meaning there are 1173 still to go. This means that in order to win, Mike Huckabee would have to win all but 176 of the remaining delegates. Romney needs all but 261 of the remaining delegates to win.

Saturday's and Tuesday's elections probably won't eliminate anyone mathematically, but it's likely at least one of those two will find himself needing to win just about every remaining delegate in every remaining state - not a likely prospect.

Edit: It looks like Romney is pulling out.

How quickly the tables turn!

The Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses are over, and results are still coming in. That said, every race except New Mexico's Democrat race can safely be called: in New Mexico, Clinton and Obama are neck and neck, with less than 1,000 votes separating the two. For the Democrats, Obama won more states, while Clinton won the big states. Mathematically, we'll call it a stalemate, which plays into Obama's hand. But how large are Florida and Michigan looming now? This race is extremely close and won't clear up any time soon.

For the GOP, as expected, McCain surged to clear front-runner status. My prediction was that McCain would come into today with around 600 electoral votes, and according to cnn.com, he's got 615, but that's not the whole story: only 59 of California's 171 GOP delegates have been assigned, so he could end up with a whole lot more. Huckabee had a stronger-than-expected showing, winning several states in the Bible Belt, while Romney started the night weak before rebounding with wins in several states out west. Nonetheless, with 1191 delegates needed to win, McCain is very clearly in the driver's seat.

Super Monday

Today's the day between the Super Bowl and Super Tuesday. Whee! Time for some predictions...

The race between Clinton and Obama is narrowing. Until now, Obama looked particularly strong in the early states, but now it looks like states in which Clinton had held a comfortable lead she's fighting to hold on to a majority. The biggest prize is California, which Clinton had been dominating and is now too close to call. That said, I think Clinton will land a few more delegates than Obama, but the race will continue to be very close.

On the GOP end of things, all indicators are that McCain will win the majority of the states, many in fairly dominant fashion. That should put Romney on life support and force Huckabee out. I'm calling it now: Huckabee exits the race before the week is out.

I need to check my math more

I recently said I expected McCain to pick up something on the order of 400 delegates on Tuesday. Then I did the delegate math: there are 1081 at stake, and I expect McCain not only to win, but to win handily. So I'm revising my projections slightly: McCain will pick up close to 600, with Huckabee and Romney splitting the rest. Huckabee will do well enough that he may not bow out immediately - but only if the added delegates bring added money.

Thinning the herd

As predicted, both Giuliani and Edwards are out of the race. Edwards is out for two major reasons: first, he mistook a strong showing as John Kerry's underling as support: in truth, Kerry/Edwards was the definition of "bland left-wing ticket", and their "support" was more a function of opposition to the Bush administration than any interest in those candidates as leaders. The candidacy gave him name recognition, but it didn't do much to help his standing as an effective or vibrant leader. The other issue is that he tried to force himself into what's really become an important discussion in the Democrat Party, between the stalwart party establishment (backing Clinton) and the "next generation" of Democrats looking for a fresh face with a fresh perspective (Obama.) It was apparent to me four years ago that this discussion was on the horizon and that Obama represented the future of the Democrats. And in this dynamic, Edwards gets left out in the cold.

The Giuliani story is also interesting. He was "America's Mayor." He was a socially liberal, fiscally conservative, tough-on-crime executive who was arguably one of the US's most powerful mayors ever. Just 3 months ago, he had a fairly large lead in national polls and was a very serious contender for the GOP nomination. Giuliani's fundamental problem was that he was a one-trick pony. He was the 9/11 mayor, campaigning on national security and counterterrorism. The problem is that 9/11 was 7 years ago, and while this country certainly hasn't forgotten, it has moved on. Giuliani was trying to win votes on national security, while (not unlike 1992) his opponents are saying, "it's the economy, stupid!" Furthermore, on issues of terrorism and national security, Giuliani and McCain were very, very, very close, but McCain also offered discussion on economic and other domestic matters.

It's very hard to win if you're a single-issue candidate.

Having said all that, the Florida GOP primary may turn out to have decided this whole issue. Heading into Super Tuesday, McCain leads in California, Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, New York and Tennessee. Furthermore, NY, NJ, Missouri, Arizona, Utah, Connecticut, Delaware and Montana are all winner-take-all states. By my count, McCain is looking at 236 delegates, plus whatever he would get from proportional states. When all is said and done, I expect him to start Wednesday with something on the order of 400 more delegates than he has today. Momentum is everything, and right now, McCain is looking electable - especially if Clinton wins the Democrat nomination.

Paring things down further

Florida is voting today. For the Democrats, this means exactly nothing, since the party stripped all of Florida's delegates. This is bad news for Clinton, since her lead in Florida is pretty comfortable, and means exactly nothing. For the GOP, Florida is vital, because it's a winner-take-all state, and a big one. The most recent numbers have McCain and Romney in a statistical dead heat - less than 1% difference between the two. Giuliani is a very distant third, and has little real hope of winning.

If Giuliani fails to win Florida, I don't see how he'll be able to continue his campaign. I do think he will want to try to make it through Super Tuesday, but it's more probable he will look at his financial situation and what his numbers are like in the Super Tuesday states. Given that he's trailing in both New York and New Jersey, I wouldn't be surprised if he drops out later this week. Florida was to be where he made his stand and gained momentum heading into Super Tuesday, and that simply hasn't materialized.

The Clinton camp have become their own worst enemies. Bill's playing the race card has escalated the Democrat race from being cordial but contentious to being downright hostile. There's some serious bad blood there, and Hillary is taking the worst of it. She desperately needs to do some damage control, repair some bridges and shut her husband up ahead of Feb 5th if she wants to regain control of her destiny. There aren't enough delegates at stake to decide the winner on Feb. 5th, but if one candidate can dominate, that candidate will be very hard to beat. If Obama has a huge Super Tuesday, it'll be all over but the shouting.

In accordance with prophesy...

Just a quick note: Thompson and Kucinich are both done. So I called one right (Thompson) and one wrong (I had Edwards going out next.) I'm also hearing rumors that Huckabee is having serious financial trouble, making campaigning difficult heading into Florida.

By February 6th, each party will be a 2-horse race.

Taking shape

Nevada is now done, as is South Carolina for the GOP. Romney and McCain were the respective winners in those races: Romney still has the overall delegate lead, but McCain has stolen the momentum from Huckabee. I expect that by Super Tuesday, this will essentially become a race between Romney and McCain, unless Huckabee can somehow pull off a miracle.

Duncan Hunter has withdrawn from the GOP race. I'm guessing Thompson will cut his losses and withdraw within 2 weeks: he was basically making his stand in South Carolina, and it remains to be seen whether he considers a distant 3rd-place finish - and no delegates - strong enough to continue. Part of me thinks he will, part of me thinks he'll try to hold out until Super Tuesday. That said, his funds are low and prospects are poor, so I'm not sure he can afford to campaign for Super Tuesday the way he'd need to.

On the Democrat side, Clinton and Obama have settled into a nice head-to-head match. The two are trading blows, but Clinton's worst-case scenario has not materialized: she's still ahead of Obama nationally, and has managed to mitigate his post-Iowa bounce. Her longer-term prospects look pretty good at the moment. I'm guessing the next candidate out will be Edwards. Kucinich is running a "fringe" candidacy, kind of like Ron Paul's but without the money and support, and he'll go as long as he can. Edwards, meanwhile, has practically no chance of winning, but does have enough clout that his support could put one of the other two over the top. I'm guessing that if it hasn't started already, some back-room dealing is on the horizon in the very near future. I also think the Democrat picture will clear up well before the GOP picture.

Let's hear it for democracy

What a strange primary season this has been! Romney won in Michigan in a must-win election, followed by McCain and Huckabee. That makes three different winners in four primaries/caucuses for the GOP, and the situation is as clear as mud.

Actually, it's a little better than that. Right now, Romney has the momentum and the delegate lead. I have little faith he'll be able to maintain that momentum through the south, but if he can continue finishing in the top 2, he just might win the nomination. Of the GOP candidates, he's the only one who has placed in the top 2 in every state so far. It's also worth noting that only Romney and McCain picked up delegates in Michigan.

And another one gone...

Bill Richardson has called it quits, and with that move, he officially becomes a leading VP candidate. This move isn't much of a surprise, considering he's hardly made an impact in the 2 contests in which he's participated. Meanwhile, Fred Thompson has stated that he's "making his stand" in South Carolina. If he doesn't fare well there, he will almost certainly drop out of the race. Giuliani also desperately needs good things to happen. My guess is that he'll decide on whether to stay in the race following the Super Tuesday primaries on Feb. 5.

I was also mistaken about Romney's fortunes: Wyoming held its Republican caucuses on Jan 5th, which Romney won. So right now we have 3 contests with 3 winners. What makes this situation interesting is that the GOP is punishing New Hampshire, Wyoming, Florida, Michigan and South Carolina for violating party rules regarding primary scheduling, so those states won't be as well represented: this may end up throwing off expected delegate counts. Given how much of a toss-up this race currently is, the effects may be wide-reaching.

When I was watching MSNBC's coverage of the New Hampshire primaries, I picked up on an interesting comment by Pat Buchanan: he said that Giuliani and McCain were essentially on the same page campaign-wise with regard to Bush's policies on terrorism and Iraq. He went on to say that when push comes to shove, the only real difference between Giuliani and McCain is that Giuliani is a one-issue candidate, whereas McCain is more well-rounded. Assuming voters agree with him, this could be very bad for Giuliani and very good for McCain. The numbers seem to support this, since McCain's backing is growing while Giuliani's is shrinking.

Ron Paul provides an interesting X-factor here. Normally, in primaries and caucuses, the bulk of the electorate are those active in their given parties (although states with open primaries do tend to get more independents.) Thus, when one candidate climbs, there is almost always a corresponding drop in another candidate or candidates: if Huckabee's support climbs 10%, 7 to 8% of that will come from other candidates (the remainder should be former undecideds.) What makes Paul's situation is that the bulk of his support are not party activists, but rather activists who otherwise would not be participating. The normal model will show 100 voters at a site, with those voters shifting their allegiances around, with maybe 1 or 2 of those 100 supporting Paul. The Paul model brings an additional 10 voters to the site, giving him 11 or 12 votes out of 110. Those 10 votes he brings otherwise would not have voted. At least, that's my read on it. It's the only explanation I can see why his primary results have been about twice what pollsters anticipated.

Comeback Kids

The New Hampshire primaries were yesterday. I find it amusing that the media outlets are trumpeting Clinton's "upset" over Obama and McCain's upset over Romney. Granted, Clinton's third-place showing in Iowa raised some questions about her long-term viability, and the run-up polls showed Obama surging to a near double-digit lead. The thing is, up until last weekend, Clinton had been the leader in New Hampshire. Let's break this down, shall we?

Winners:
Hillary Clinton. She was not expected to win in Iowa, but third place was a stinging setback for her. While I had anticipated her winning in New Hampshire, the major media outlets did not, so this actually makes her campaign look more resilient than it actually is. This could pay off in Nevada and South Carolina.

Barack Obama. Even though very late polls had predicted a win for him, losing by 2 points to the 20-ton gorilla is no mean feat. A win in Iowa and a razor-thin defeat in New Hampshire demonstrate his viability as a candidate.

John McCain. He desperately needed this one to keep his campaign hopes alive, although I think the media is making too much of his chances as a candidate. I will be shocked if he wins the presidential nomination, but he's still alive - for now.

Mike Huckabee. Finishing third in a state in which he had spent very little time and money campaigning is very, very good, and indicative of the growing strength of his national campaign.

Losers:
Rudi Giuliani. The presumptive GOP front-runner has now finished 6th in Iowa and 4th in New Hampshire. He's not just losing, he's losing badly. National polling shows his support is dropping hard, and depending on which poll you follow, he's now somewhere between 3rd and 4th overall.

Fred Thompson. For all intents and purposes, his campaign is over. The segment he was trying to attract have all gone to Huckabee, McCain or Romney. Don't be surprised to see Thompson withdraw if he fares poorly in South Carolina.

Mitt Romney. His campaign is still strong, but he desperately needed a win in his back yard to keep his presidential aspirations alive. He's going to find campaigning in the South very difficult, and failing to win a key New England race really sets him back. He might have won, if not for Huckabee.

John Edwards. He needed another strong showing to prove he belonged in the conversation with Clinton and Obama, and he didn't get it. He's still very much alive, but New Hampshire proved that the Democrat race is Clinton v. Obama.

1 down, 49 to go

Well, the Iowa caucuses are over, and Obama and Huckabee ended up the winners. Huckabee actually won more easily than people had anticipated. This gives Huckabee's campaign a huge boost, while Thompson's appears dead in the water: he needed a second-place finish badly, and came in third. Ron Paul garnered 10% of the vote, and national front-runner Giuliani walked away with 4%.

I wasn't really surprised by Obama's win, although Hillary's third-place finish came as something of a stunner. Apparently Edwards was able to close the gap. More later...